What is the summary risk assessment (SRP)?
An analytical procedure used by the tax administration to examine digital data for anomalies — not a form of audit laid down by statute and not a species of evidence in its own right. It does not appear in the German Fiscal Code. What it produces are statistical anomalies. Whether a power to estimate follows from them is decided not by the procedure but by § 158 Abs. 2 Nr. 1 AO: whether the circumstances of the individual case give cause to object to substantive accuracy.
The difference between an anomaly and a finding
A statistical procedure always answers the same question: how probable is this pattern under a given assumption? It does not answer whether the assumption holds for this business. A deviation from the expected value is therefore a reason to look more closely — it is not a finding about the accuracy of the records. The step from anomaly to finding has to be reasoned separately.
What the result must be measured against
The provisions in this table are German law. Most European legal orders know the same principle — set out verbatim and by country in the register of legal bases.
| Yardstick | Legal basis | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Precedence of the accounts | § 158 Abs. 1 AO | Proper accounts shall be taken as the basis. |
| The threshold | § 158 Abs. 2 Nr. 1 AO | Only in so far as there is cause to object to substantive accuracy. |
| The scope | § 162 Abs. 1 Satz 1 AO | Estimation only in so far as nothing can be established or calculated. |
| All circumstances | § 162 Abs. 1 Satz 2 AO | Including those that explain a statistical anomaly. |
| Favourable circumstances too | § 88 Abs. 1 Satz 2 AO | The authority must take favourable circumstances into account as well. |
| Czechia for comparison | § 92 Abs. 5 lit. c daňového řádu | There the statute says it expressly: the authority proves the facts that disprove the completeness of the records. |
Why the explanation usually lies in the business
Statistical expected values assume a uniform course of business. Real businesses are not uniform: opening hours change, menus change, staff change, tills are replaced, payment methods shift. Almost every anomaly has a counterpart in the business — it only has to be found and documented. That is work on facts, not statistics.
And where the objection does not hold
Whoever declares a statistical procedure unsuitable across the board will not get far — as a selection instrument it is meant to do nothing more than find cases worth a closer look. The effective objection is not against the procedure but against the inference: that a power to estimate already follows from the anomaly. § 158 Abs. 2 Nr. 1 AO requires that inference to be reasoned separately.
What we contribute
We work through every anomaly individually and look for its cause in the business, in the data. For every point we write down whether it can be explained or whether it stands — including when it stands.
The legal provisions reproduced here are for information and do not replace legal advice. For application in an individual case the legal position at the time of the proceedings must be examined by a lawyer admitted in the country and field concerned.